ARIMA: Foresight Excel Add-in

Models series values using the ARIMA method. It is included into the Forecast group.

The ARIMA model is one of the most popular methods that are used to make short-term forecasts.

Select one or several series in the data table.
Click the Forecasting button on the Calculations ribbon tab.
Select the ARIMA option in the drop-down list of the button.

After the method is applied, a series with the name of the ARIMA(<Series_Name>) type and containing calculation results is added to the data table for each of the selected series. For example:

Setting Up Calculation Options

Make sure that the side panel is displayed.
Select the series calculated by the ARIMA method in the data table.
Select the Series radio button on the side panel.
Go to the Parameters tab.

To use constant in a model:

Select the Constant checkbox.
Select constant calculation method:

Estimate. The constant value is estimated automatically on method calculation. The obtained value is shown in the input box at the right.
Specified. The constant value is specified by the user in the corresponding box.

Set non-seasonal or seasonal parameters of the method:

Autoregression. The checkbox is deselected by default. If the checkbox is selected, the specified order of the non-seasonal or seasonal autoregression is taken into account.
Moving Average. If the checkbox is selected, the specified order of non-seasonal or seasonal moving average is taken into account.

TIP. Enter numbers or ranges of orders of seasonal or non-seasonal moving average and seasonal or non-seasonal autoregression separated with commas. Specify order range using the - sign. For example: 1-3,5,7-9.

Difference. If the checkbox is selected, the specified order of differentiating non-seasonal or seasonal series component is taken into account.